Global PC sales in Q2 fell by less than previously forecast, down 1.7% yr/yr to 74.4 million, says IDC, which had predicted a 7.1% drop. This was smaller than the 4.4% and 5.6% declines respectively seen in Q1 and Q4. Gartner is even more positive, estimating shipments rose 0.1%, ending a long string of declines.
"While the worldwide PC market stopped two years of declining shipments in the second quarter, there were mixed results, as stabilisation in developed markets was offset by a decline in emerging markets," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner.
"The PC industry in emerging markets has been impacted by the allure of low-cost tablets. These low-cost tablets continue to take spending from new PC units, meaning that it will take more time for PC sales to stabilize in emerging markets."
HP achieved its fastest global PC shipment increase in the last four years (since 2Q10). The company has put a lot of effort into restoring its PC business, including the review of the product family and stock keeping units (SKUs), as well as revitalising the channel partner program. HP did very well in EMEA with 21% shipment growth, securing the top spot in the region.
IDC thinks business PC upgrades following the end of Microsoft XP support helped. But it also says consumer demand was better than expected, with sales of low-end PCs, including. Chromebooks improving as tablet sales growth slows. Sales in the US and EMEA (two high-ASP regions) rose, while Asia-Pac (outside Japan) still fell by nearly double digits. IDC now thinks full-year industry growth "could get closer to flat, rather than the May projection of -6%. IDC's Q1 share data points to industry leaders gaining at the expense of smaller players: Lenovo's 19.6% share, +270 bps Y/Y. HP with 18.3%, +190 bps, and Dell 14%, +180 bps. Acer at 8.2%, -10 bps. Asus at 6.2%, +30 bps.
PC shipments in EMEA totalled 22.5 million units in the second quarter of 2014, an 8.6% increase from the same period last year, says Gartner.
The EMEA PC market has returned to strong growth after very weak growth (0.3%) during the first quarter of 2014 and eight consecutive quarters of decline prior to that.
"2014 is on pace to be a year of relative revival in the global PC market and that change is most pronounced in Western Europe," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "In EMEA during the second quarter we saw a continued shift to ultramobiles at the expense of traditional notebooks." In addition, PC sales in EMEA continued to be driven by an increase in professional spending. This is in part due to organisations upgrading from Windows XP as official support from Microsoft ended.
Hybrid ultramobiles, such as two-in-one devices, are becoming more attractive - with increased usability at lower price points. Sales of premium tablets (such as the iPad), which compete with PCs, are also slowing as users move to tablets with lower functionality and price points; some users will replace premium tablets with two-in-one PCs, bringing spend back to the PC market.
In emerging European markets, the story was different, with two distinct trajectories seen during the quarter. "In Eastern Europe the PC market stabilised and volumes improved marginally year-on-year, driven by a slightly improved economic situation," said Isabelle Durand, principal research analyst at Gartner. "However, the situation in Russia and Eurasia remains challenging, due to the political and economic situation in Ukraine." The ongoing conflict resulted in a steep decline in the PC market in Ukraine, and businesses have delayed many PC purchases in Russia until, at best, the second half of 2014.